In the second half of 2020, there will be two possible scenarios in the wafer market: First, the market uncertainty caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic continues to ferment, and the global silicon wafer market sales decline; or due to the strong rebound in chip sales , Showing an upward trend..

The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) recently released the latest Silicon Wafer Market Monitor (Silicon Wafer Market Monitor) that there will be two possible situations in the wafer market in the second half of 2020: One is the new coronavirus (COVID-19). ) The market uncertainty caused by the epidemic continues to ferment, and the global silicon wafer market sales decline; or due to the strong rebound of chip sales, it is on the rise.

As countries around the world are busy with COVID-19 prevention work, SEMI predicts that silicon wafer sales will fall in the second half of 2020, and its effect may also affect the results of price negotiations in 2021. This latest quarterly report tracks a variety of wafer shipment indicators, including wafer shipments, changes in supply and demand, supplier dynamics, and price trends and forecasts, from which SEMI shares market forecast trends.

However, the key is still whether the uncertainty caused by the epidemic will lead to a decline in the demand for silicon wafers, or whether the major impact on the market can be controlled within a short period of a few months.

In order to minimize losses, the second quarter of 2020 will see chip manufacturers increase orders for silicon wafers and build safety stocks to meet future demand. This move is expected to reduce the impact of the epidemic on sales in the quarter.

If the epidemic continues to raging, affecting semiconductor market demand until the second half of 2020, the growth of silicon wafer shipments is expected to continue until the second quarter and begin to decline in the third quarter. Under this not optimistic situation, despite the substantial growth in the second quarter, it is estimated that the shipments of 12-inch (300 mm) silicon wafers in 2020 will remain flat or slightly decline, while 8-inch (200 mm) and 6-inch ( 150mm) shipments will be reduced by 5% and 13% respectively.

However, if signs of a strong industrial recovery begin to appear in the second half of 2020, the stockpiling in the second quarter will help promote the growth of silicon wafer shipments. With people’s expectation that suppressed demand will drive the chip industry’s rebound psychology, this upward trend may continue to strengthen throughout the next half of 2020.

The total area of silicon wafers began to decline after reaching a peak in October 2018. Last year, overall global wafer shipments fell by 6.9% compared with 2018, and compared with 2017, it grew by only 0.4% in 2019.

The shipment of silicon wafers in 2019 did not gradually stabilize until the end of the year. Before the outbreak, the market was quite optimistic about the situation in 2020, mainly because the market expected that inventory would return to normal levels. It was also optimistic about the improvement of the memory market and the data center market. Growth and take-off of the 5G market. However, the outbreak of the epidemic is planting a lot of variables for the market that is about to recover.

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